A month before the election

THE competing teams for Indonesia’s presidential election on July 8th have now been settled. At first glance voters seem to face a hard choice. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, the incumbent president, is up against both his predecessor, Megawati Sukarnoputri, and his deputy, Jusuf Kalla. All are secular politicians who have eschewed the chance to broaden their appeal by picking a vice-presidential running-mate from an Islamic party.

Mr Yudhoyono, a former general, has selected Boediono, the respected governor of the central bank, who has resigned to run for the office (which requires a medical: he is the man on the right in the photo). Ms Megawati has teamed up with Prabowo Subianto, another ex-general, one-time son-in-law of Suharto, the late dictator, polo-player and populist. Mr Kalla’s running-mate is Wiranto, yet another Suharto-era general.

On closer inspection, however, it looks like a one-horse race. Ms Megawati has failed to use her five years in opposition to re-establish herself as a potent political force after Mr Yudhoyono soundly beat her in 2004. Her approval rating in one recent opinion poll was only 15%. And, judging from the protracted negotiations required to seal her partnership with Mr Prabowo, their alliance is far from solid.

Mr Kalla can justifiably claim to be a man of action, with a record of achievement in office, particularly on economic issues, and as a peacemaker who helped broker the end to a separatist conflict in the province of Aceh in 2005. But his approval rating is only 2%. Moreover, Golkar, his party, is deeply divided. Many party bigwigs seem busier plotting Mr Kalla’s removal as chairman than backing his presidential bid. And Mr Wiranto, the object of an international arrest warrant for his role in the violence in East Timor in 1999, could be as much of a liability as an asset.

Mr Yudhoyono, in contrast, is riding high. His approval rating is about 70% and he is having a good financial crisis. In selecting the apolitical Mr Boediono he sent a clear message to the Islamic parties and the nation as a whole that, with his Democratic Party now the biggest in parliament, he intends to call the shots. The party has only 26% of the seats, so he will need others’ backing. But this year, unlike 2004 when it won just 8% of the seats, the coalition will be built on his terms.

Many analysts are now debating not whether Mr Yudhoyono will win, but only whether he will do so in the first round or require a run-off in September. According to the present polls, one round should suffice and complacency could be his biggest threat. The financial markets are already assuming he is going to win. Surprises cannot be ruled out. Before April’s parliamentary election, for example, hardly anyone predicted the presidential contest would turn out like this. But with seven weeks to go the presidency is increasingly looking like Mr Yudhoyono’s to lose.